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Mobile & Wireless
Industry View
Preparing for the mobile data tsunami
What mobile operators can and must do to successfully ride the coming waves
by Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave Systems, Inc.
The reality of data overload is beginning to dawn on mobile operators. The rapid uptake in iPhone and iClone devices has proven that a user-friendly mobile internet experience, complete with easy-to-consume mobile applications, can drive exponential increases in data usage in an alarmingly short amount of time.
A 2009 comScore report shows that the number of people using their mobile device to access news and information on the Internet more than doubled between January 2008 and January 2009. The study also shows that, among an audience of 63.2 million people who accessed news and information on their mobile devices in January 2009, 22.4 million (35 percent) did so daily -- more than double the figure from last year.
Over the last two years we’ve seen smartphones move into the mainstream and we expect continued uptake, along with other mobile devices such as netbooks and PCs with 3G air cards (dongles in Europe), and built-in 3G radios. The current amount of data traffic generated from smartphones is estimated at about 66 petabytes per year. Strategy Analytics estimates that amount will grow five times to 250 petabytes by 2012.
Networks are already struggling to support the increase in traffic from expanding consumer data demand. Bandwidth use is reaching new highs on a consistent basis, and it continues to grow. If operators are struggling now, the worst is yet to come as no less than two tsunami waves of mobile data demand are approaching at breakneck speed.
The Two Tsunamis
The first tsunami of demand is from the increasing number of smartphone users. If the industry thought that the poor economy would limit or delay mobile data usage, we are witnessing a far different scenario, particularly as the capabilities of data-intensive smartphone devices continue to make their way into the mass market in developed countries.
Beyond the smartphone tsunami is another larger second tsunami, fueled by netbooks, 3G-equipped PCs and data cards, and an abundant array of internet-capable consumer devices that have yet to be unveiled. This category of device is expected to place an even greater demand on networks than smartphones, both in terms of sheer data capacity and speed with which these devices proliferate.
In the Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Forecast for 2008-2013, Cisco Systems predicted that laptop data cards will generate more than 80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013. The forecast said that a single smartphone generates more data traffic than 30 mass market feature phones, and a 3G-tethered laptop generates more data traffic than 15 smartphones. So every notebook computer user who adds 3G or switches to a netbook creates data traffic equivalent to 450 feature phones.
This means small changes in 3G usage among computer users will have an astonishing impact on mobile networks. Converting just one percent of the world’s one billion PCs to 3G access would be the data traffic equivalent of adding 450 million new feature phones to the network.
For networks that are already straining to support existing devices, the twin tsunamis of rising smartphone sales and PCs switching to 3G are daunting. Operators must take definitive steps to not only weather these data tsunamis, but to successfully ride them to strong market positions.
Network Upgrades
The reality is that operators need to start upgrading the capacity of their networks. 4G technologies like LTE and WiMAX are designed for heavy mobile data usage. But large scale network build-outs are incredibly expensive and time consuming. Right now, additional capital expenditure and time are two luxuries the industry cannot afford. With the rising tide of data traffic, the industry cannot sit back and wait for the launch of an LTE network to solve today’s problems.
Today, the major bottleneck for mobile data lies within the transport network. Operators need to look at ways to increase their backhaul capacity with offload strategies, such as Wi-Fi. Cost-effective, rapidly-deployed options such as microwave backhaul are going to be popular as operators realize the benefits of this technology over rival technologies.
An increase in backhaul capacity is one immediate way to start preparing for data overload. There are also more immediate and cost effective options operators can deploy that will prepare them for the larger network build out:
Content Acceleration and Optimization
Another way for operators to handle the approaching flood of data is by reducing the amount of content sent over the air through compression techniques and reducing bandwidth usage through video optimization and network acceleration. Reducing the data required for video and other bandwidth-intensive services with an intelligent technology sitting inside the operator network eases the burden on the network and improves the user experience with faster upload, download and browsing speeds to provide more immediate access to content.
At the center of network optimization are three basic functions:
• First, compress content to reduce the actual volume of data being transmitted;
• Second, transport the data more efficiently;
• Third, cache content closer to the network edge to enable a faster internet experience, and limit the volume of data going over internet links from the carrier network.
There are five key factors to consider when choosing an optimization solution:
- Intelligent. The right solution must intelligently address the scale of traffic and its complexity; what works for image compression won’t work for video compression. A smart solution will have the capability to “recognize” the type of traffic being processed and determine what to optimize and what not to optimize accordingly to preserve the integrity of content.
- Preserve the User Experience. A solution that compresses, caches and pre-fetches content of any kind must do so with no perceived hindrance to the overall user experience.
- Policy-based. Operators need a solution that allows them to enforce usage policies based on business criteria, network conditions, device types and data protocols. Such flexibility lets operators keep their subscribers happy while implementing “fair usage” and business savvy policies.
- Ease of Implementation. A solution must be easy to implement for different mobile devices (new devices appear constantly) without forcing the operator to reconfigure for each new device.
- Fully Integrated. An integrated solution with a service “plug-in” architecture is much better equipped to scale with the rising tide of traffic than one that employs a proxy chain of point solutions to address each type of traffic protocol.
In-Network Mobile Analytics
An effective mobile analytics solution should be able to measure data usage patterns for SMS, MMS, email, location WAP and HTTP, as well as the ability to know when, where and how much data subscribers use by individuals or population. This 360 degree view of the mobile subscriber is critical for operators to correlate various data feeds and gain a deep understanding of their subscribers’ online habits, both on- and off-portal. An analytics tool that can seamlessly monitor and unobtrusively measure usage and consumption patterns within the data access layer is essential to make adjustments on the fly and ensure available bandwidth exists across the network. The right mobile analytics tool will allow operators to decipher what is happening in network, get in front of capacity issues, and gain insight into subscriber behavior.
Metrics that can be tracked through a good mobile analytics tool include:
• Amount of time spent on a website
• Average website visits per subscriber
• Types of activity engaged on a particular website (downloading, blogging, etc.)
• Total time spent online per subscriber
• Number of transactions by day, week, month
Subscriber Monitoring and Flexible Payments
Another win-win for overloaded network operators and cash-conscious consumers are “pay-as-you-go” data plans. Not only do these plans encourage consumers to monitor their own mobile data usage, they are more in line with actual data usage. With the help of subscriber intelligence tools, such as analytics, operators can tap into new revenue streams by offering infrequent data users time-based “passports” as a risk-free way to experience the mobile web.
There is no “one size fits all” answer when it comes to bandwidth and traffic management. Operators should consider solutions that allow them to transport data more efficiently and evenhandedly such as a tiered approach that offers differentiated access according to a subscriber’s data plan, as opposed to offering the same level of access to all user types.
Summary
It is clear that the magnitude of the challenge facing the mobile industry is immense. As an industry, we are barely coping with the first part of the smartphone tidal wave and woefully unprepared for the second wave that will come from 3G-equipped PCs and other new devices. Some networks have already reached full capacity and are experiencing intermittent service failures due the uptick in data traffic. The problem is only going to get worse. It is crucial that operators embrace this data bandwidth challenge head-on, invest in the necessary infrastructure to manage the data tsunamis, and begin to develop services that can capitalize on the coming opportunities.
Ken Denman is chief executive officer for Openwave Systems where he is focused on growing the company's global market share with innovative software infrastructure products and services for mobile and broadband operators. Ken's career spans more than 20 years in the global telecommunications and IT industries.
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